Phylogeography and Conservation of the Critically Endangered Non-Annual Rivulid Anablepsoides cearensis (Costa & Vono, 2009) in the Caatinga
Ecological Niche Models, Threatened Species, Molecular Markers, Semi-arid, Climate Changes.
The rivulids are the most threatened freshwater fish in Brazil. They are small, colorful, and exhibit peculiar characteristics regarding their habitats, life cycle, and reproduction, which contribute to a high level of endemism. These fish are distributed throughout the neotropical region and can be classified into two groups based on their adaptations to the seasonality of water bodies: annual species in seasonal environments and non-annual species in perennial environments. The majority of rivulids in the Brazilian semi-arid region are annual, with a low diversity of non-annual species. In the Caatinga, the only exclusively Brazilian biome and the most populous semiarid region in the world, there are 54 species, of which only three are non-annual. One of these, Anablepsoides cearensis (Costa & Vono, 2009), is classified as critically endangered (CR). Despite its restricted distribution to the coastal plains of Ceará (CE) and its threatened status, no studies or conservation actions have been conducted to date. Additionally, in 2017, its distribution was expanded by a new occurrence in the Mundaú River basin, 77 km west of the type locality in the Anil River basin in São Gonçalo do Amarante (CE), raising questions about the actual extent of its distribution or whether it may be a new species. Therefore, this project aimed to clarify its geographic distribution, phylogenetic relationships, phylogeography, the impact of climate change, and ultimately reevaluate its conservation status. An approach based on Ecological Niche Models was employed to detect potential occurrence areas, integrated with molecular genetic analyses to assess genetic distances and delineate populations. Two collections were made from an initial model with A. cearensis and related species, resulting in new records and model refinement after each sampling. As a result, the distribution area expanded from three to seven basins. Initially, two structured populations were identified with no genetic distance characterizing the existence of cryptic species. A new threat classification was recommended under the "endangered" (EN) category, and the inclusion of ichthyofauna in the management plans of Conservation Units (UC) in the region was suggested. Predictions indicated that approximately 27% of the current area will be retained under all evaluated scenarios. In terms of phylogenetic relationships, morphological hypotheses were reaffirmed, maintaining the grouping with species from the A. urophthalmus clade.